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A cell marked «not yet» is genuinely missing data, not a zero.
What should you bid?
Type in a programme’s figures and get the number you can paste straight into Google Ads. Press ⌘K to find a programme.
Programme figures
No programme selected; figures entered by hand
↳ this field only tests profit or loss. It does not change the recommended bid.
Conversion rate is the easiest figure to get wrong. With no data of your own, use 3%.
Average order value is not the price of one product. Type your own; loading a programme leaves it blank, we do not guess it.
Average order value is not the price of one product. Type your own; loading a programme leaves it blank, we do not guess it.
Why these numbers
Bid ladder
With your budget
If the conversion rate or CPC turns out different
Profit or loss over 100 clicks. Red cells lose money.
Revenue at different scales
Drag the sliders to see what running N programmes is worth. It counts the money burned on the losers as well as the winners.
Drag to try
Winning programmes you keep
150
Profit per order ($)$
$1$100
Orders per day per programme
0.520
Win rate (%)%
5%60%
Test budget per programme ($)$
$10$150
Win rate means: out of 100 programmes you pay to test, how many actually turn a profit.
The default 25% is an assumption. It has not been measured against your own data.
Test budget is what you spend to find out whether a programme wins or loses, then stop.
Test budget is what you spend to find out whether a programme wins or loses, then stop.
What each field means
Winning programmeOne that turns a real profit and keeps doing so, not one that produced a single order and died.
Beginners usually count break-even programmes as wins.
Profit per orderThe commission minus the ad spend it took to get that order.
Not the commission itself. The Bid calculator tab gives you this figure.
Orders per daySmall brands usually do 0.5–3 orders a day. Above 5 means an established brand,
or a large budget.
Win rateOut of 100 programmes you pay to test, how many turn a profit.
Beginners typically 10–20%, experienced buyers 25–40%.
Drag it to 10% to see the bad case.
Test budgetWhat it costs to learn whether one programme lives or dies.
Too little and you cannot conclude anything; too much and you burn money on losers.
By scale
Net year one = profit for the year minus everything burned on the losers.
How to pick programmes, learned from real money
1
Read the commission in money, not in percent.
5% of a $3,400 order is $170. 50% of a $166 order is $83. A big percentage is not a big cheque.
2
Test with your own numbers before you spend.
Put your own order value, commission and conversion rate into the calculator. It never fills in your order value for you.
3
Prefer brands with a real discount code.
A page with only a «Get Deal» button and no code means the visitor leaves and does not come back through your link, so you lose the commission.
4
Read the programme terms before you run anything.
Many brands ban paid search or ban bidding on their brand name.
Break that and they void your commission; worse, you can lose the ad account.
5
Cookie length matters more than people think.
A 7-day cookie on expensive goods often runs out before the sale, because the buyer is still comparing prices.
Above $200, look for 30 days or more.
6
Do not filter by search volume.
Brands with almost no searches still produce hundreds of dollars. The gate is a referral link and a working code,
not search volume.
7
Avoid the giants.
Amazon, Nike and Booking bring heavy competition, thin commission, and a ban on bidding for the brand name.
The money sits with small brands nobody is running yet.
8
Test small, cut fast.
Give each programme a fixed test budget. If it finishes below 0.7 ROAS, cut it.
Above 1.5, raise the budget.
9
Do not switch a campaign off because it shows «0 conversions».
Google Ads cannot count affiliate orders, so that column is almost always zero.
Check the network’s commission report instead.
10
The last four months of the year are a different market.
Many brands run 2–4 times higher in November and December. A programme that looks ordinary all year can be
a seasonal goldmine. Prepare in September, not in November.
Niche × Network
What the database holds, and where it sits.
Where this data comes from
programmes. The table below is the real coverage of every column. Nothing rounded up, no empty cell hidden.
Bid calculator formula (uses the numbers you type)
1. Commission per order = order value × commission rate × (1 − cancellation rate)
2. Clicks per order = 100 ÷ conversion rate
3. Break-even bid = commission per order ÷ clicks per order
(the standard PPC break-even CPC formula)
Where we are making a judgement call, not following a standard
Advising a bid at half the ceilingour own convention
Default conversion rate of 8%assumption, change it to yours
Order value in the calculators is the one you type; we do not estimate it from the store priceyour number
The break-even bid formulaPPC industry standard
What we will not do
× We take no money from the brands listed to move them up. No paid placement, no sponsored labels.
× We never write a zero in place of a missing value. If we do not have it, the cell says so.
× We never promise a programme will be profitable. We give you the numbers; the decision is yours.
× We do not sell lifetime access. Data has to be fed continuously, and charging once means letting it rot.
What’s new
Every change is logged, as evidence the data is still being looked after.